Life in Lochlanland

Playing with Statistics!

Freakonomics and Divorce

I'm sorry, but Freakonomics is just cool - both the book, which was actually a very interesting read and the website.  The tool that is currently interesting me is a widget located here: http://www.divorce360.com/content/divorcecalculator.aspx.

Darren and I are fine :).  Friends of ours found this website through a Freakonomics article and it's fun to play with the statistics.

The way it works is based on a series of historical socio-economic data it determines the percentage of people with similar backgrounds who are already divorced and the percentage of people with similar backgrounds who will be divorced.

In my case, 3% of similar people are already divorced and 8% will divorced within the next 5 years.  Not so interesting... until you start to play with the levers.  So I am female, I have a child, I was 25 when I got married, I have a university degree and I've been married for 7 years.

If I remove the child from the equation, 22% of people were already divorced and 16% of people will be within the next 5 years.  So having Lochlan has a significant effect on MY likelihood of staying married.  However, children aren't statistically significant for men.  At least that's what I assume because the widget doesn't ask the men if they have children.

So for Darren - with his correct data, 8% of men were already divorced and 5% would be within the next 5 years.  So the longer we're married the more likley it is that I'll get divorced, but it's less likely that Darren will.

If you reduce my education level, my risk goes to 10% already divorced and 11% will be divorced within 5 years.

Couple of things to note... I don't know how they're gathering this data.  I assume it's based on census data, Amercian census data, so it's probably not at all applicable to me because I'm Canadian and Canadian divorce rates are quite a bit lower than US divorce rates. All it's doing is telling you how many people in the US with similar background are divorced or will be divorced. 

It doesn't really MEAN anything - it's just a way of reporting census data, but it's interesting to see the effects of these different levers on divorce rates.  I'm just a statistics geek.  Sorry.

But some of the levers have interesting results when you start to play with then.  So if you're bored on a Friday afternoon... play with statistics!!

I thought I had a point... but it's been lost in the busy-ness of the day.  But I'm posting this anyway... so ha!  This is on long pointless post about a statistics widget I found.

Now I'm going to build a transportation zone system.  Fun, fun!

Is It Lunchtime Yet?

I'm hungry.  Really Hungry

It's 11:12am

Is it too early for lunch?

I have a 1pm meeting, so I can't go out for lunch - today is my meeting day.  Had a 2hr meeting this morning to work on some stuff with my boss and a 3hr meeting this afternoon to do something else.  I don't remember what, all I know is I don't need to do anything for the meeting, just show up and be brilliant.  I can manage that... well, assuming I manage lunch.

I'm debating between my Chef Boyardee Mini-O's or going to the cafeteria for a grilled cheese sandwich.  It's payday, so I think the grilled cheese will win.  Yum...  Our cafeteria isn't the best food ever, but it's good enough.  You aren't hungry when you're done, you won't get sick and besides that - it's hard to mess up a grilled cheese sandwich.  So if I can manage to kill 10 more minutes here, I'll go get my sandwich.

Then I have to sew buttons back on my coat.  Have I mentioned that it drives me crazy that buttons on winter coats are never, ever sewn on properly?  I have three buttons on my coat and two buttons have fallen of and third is on it's way.  I'll fix it today, but I really wish manufacturers would sew them on properly to begin with. Argh.  Plus I don't like sewing on buttons, so it's doubly annoying.  However I brought my needle and thread to work today, so I'll fix the coat and be nice and warm going home tonight.

Ugh... the weather... it's been really cold here the last couple of days. I'm just not a cold and snow kind of person.  I know it's pretty, and as long as don't have to go anywhere then I don't really mind it, but otherwise all I can think about it is that my pants get wet and grubby, I have to clean off my car, it's cold and cold makes me hurt. However, my commute is still wonderful!  It takes me maybe 2 minutes longer to get to work? It's lovely - if we had been in Airdrie, this winter would have been awful.  And we'd be planning a move now, instead of last year.  Which would be okay, except that the market has really slowed down etc etc etc.  Really we just timed it perfectly and I am sooooo happy in the new place.

Okay, it's 11:26am.  By the time I head downstairs, get some money and get back... it'll be lunchtime!!

 

Rock Band Bliss

Okay, seriously. This is the best.game.ever.

No, really.

It is.

Think about. how many of you at some point in your teenage years danced around your bedroom singing Bon Jovi as loud as you could? Everyone did. If it wasn't Bon Jovi, it was someone else, but I guarantee that you, too, danced around your room singing or lip syncing to the words of your favourite songs were.

Then. as time goes on and you realize that you have no musical talent, or you have some but not the drive to be a performer or you hate performing or. well, you get the idea. At some point life intrudes and most people give up those dreams and move onto something else. That's usually a good thing - I am much happier as an engineer than I would be as a musician. Given that I hate performing and everything.

Anyway.

Rock Band can give you that dream - you can play the guitar like Jimi Hendrix, you can play the drums like Pete Wentz. You can sing. okay it you won't sound like Bon Jovi when you sing, but the rest is good!!! You can get together with your friends and play all these great songs - and sound great too!! Even if you have no musical talent whatsoever! You really can be in a rock band - and it's wonderful.

I love this game.

So in a little bit I will be heading out, picking up my Bug-a-Boo and going home, ordering supper and Rocking with our friends :-). You're jealous. I know you are :P

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